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By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer NEW YORK — Stocks sank Monday as a modest uptick in existing home sales could not lift investors’ downcast spirits on the last day of Wall Street’s volatile and difficult year. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 100 points with only a few hours left of trading.
The National Association of Realtors said November existing home sales rose 0.4% to an annual rate of 5 million — the first rise in nine months. However, sales are still 20% below where they were a year ago, and the median existing home price has dropped 3.3% over the past 12 months.
Falling home prices this year have made it hard for struggling homeowners to refinance their mortgages, and the slump in construction activity has hurt home builders and other housing-related industries.
Investors have some reason to believe that Wall Street in 2008 might be able to put to rest some of its financial troubles. The U.K.’s Observer newspaper reported Sunday that Merrill Lynch (MER) was in talks over the weekend to line up capital from investors in China and the Middle East in exchange for portions of the Wall Street firm.
Merrill, like many other financial houses, has seen its portfolio lose billions of dollar in value due to misplaced bets on mortgages. And as Citigroup (C), UBS (UBS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bear Stearns (BSC) have done, it has turned to investors in Asia for much-needed capital — Merrill has already gotten $4.4 billion this month from a Singapore fund, which bought a 9.9% stake in the U.S. brokerage.
The Dow will be posting its first fourth-quarter drop since 1997. The blue chips’ gain for the year so far of about 7%, though, is respectable — not as large as the increase in 2006, but a better performance than the modest loss seen in 2005.
In early afternoon trading Monday, the Dow fell 102.02, or 0.8%, to 13,263.85.
Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 11.16, or 0.8%, to 1467.33, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 23.19, or 0.9%, to 2651.27.
Going into Monday’s session, the S&P was up 3.4%, and the Nasdaq was up 9.6%.
Government bonds rose. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, slid to 4.03% from 4.12% late Friday.
Treasurys have staged an unusually impressive rally in the past year. Weakness in the housing sector and overall economy, as well as concerns that beleaguered banks could face a year-end liquidity squeeze, provided fuel for the government bond rally.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a light 395.4 million shares.
2007 was a remarkable year on Wall Street. The market began the year continuing the rally that propeled the Dow above 12,000 for the first time in October. Then, in late February, came a reminder that stocks were capable of turning tail and plunging — a skid on China’s stock market and an ominous economic outlook from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan sent the Dow down 416 points in one day.
That panic didn’t last long. In April, the Dow barreled above 13,000 for the first time and then glided past 14,000 in mid-July. But in late July, however, the market realized that the ongoing slump in housing, and a rise in mortgage foreclosures due to resetting adjustable-rate loans, was taking a toll across the credit markets.
Though the housing market started teetering as early as 2005, few people anticipated how much the downturn could affect the global financial system. Mortgages given to borrowers deemed “subprime” comprised only about an eighth of the $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market — why would that rattle the world markets?
The problem was, these pieces of debt were chopped up, repackaged and woven into larger fixed-income instruments, on which banks and other investors made billion-dollar bets — bets that were extremely profitable during the housing boom, but calamitous when borrowers couldn’t keep up with their mortgage payments. When one slice of the instrument defaulted, it pulled the whole thing down with it.
Investors bailed out of anything tied to mortgages, and soon Wall Street realized that financial institutions in the United States and overseas were holding billions of dollars in assets that were losing value by the day. The biggest names on the Street — Merrill Lynch, Citigroup , Bear Stearns — announced billions of dollars in write-downs. Merrill and Citi lost their CEOs, and several financial firms needed billion-dollar investments to clean up their balance sheets.
In the midst of this turmoil, the credit markets all but seized up, and all these interconnected events pummeled stocks. Triple-digit drops, recoveries and then drops again in the Dow became commonplace as Wall Street suffered through months of volatility reminiscent of the terrible days after the 2001 terror attacks.
In August and September the Federal Reserve began to act, with interest rate cuts and injections of liquidity. It helped for a while, and in October, stocks were rallying again taking the Dow to another set of record highs — only to succumb again to fears about the unknown extent of the credit mess.
Wall Street goes into 2008 still shaky because of that uncertainty, not to mention oil’s jump this year of about 60% to nearly $100 a barrel, and the U.S. dollar’s tumble to record lows against the euro. On Monday, the dollar rose against most other major currencies, gold prices fell, and crude oil prices fell 77 cents to $95.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
“We’ve seen the return of volatility. I think that will be around for a while, and will govern trading for the new year,” said Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy for I. A. Englander & Co. “Stock selection and strategy will play a very important part in the success of anybody who is trading going into the new year. This is not a time where you throw a dart at the board.”
In 2007, stocks in the technology and energy industries did well, while the financial sector and small-caps — usually fledgling companies that rely heavily on loans to grow their business — lagged.
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