Europe Faces Uncertain Future
Friday, November 30th, 2007LONDON -
European economic growth put in a healthy performance for the third quarter of 2007, which has done nothing to settle economists’ fears of a future slump on the back of the credit crunch, falling consumer confidence and the strong euro.
The EU said Friday that third-quarter gross domestic product had grown 2.9% year-on-year, or 0.8% since the second quarter of 2007. The 13-member eurozone grew 2.7% year-on-year, or a quarterly growth of 0.7%. Equities put in a good performance in Europe, with the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index closing up 1.1%, or 47.95 points, to 4,394.95 points.
Economists had expected the bounce-back after a second quarter distorted by reduced government spending and investment, which saw European growth up 2.8% year-on-year, or 0.3% quarterly, and eurozone growth up 2.5% year-on-year, or 0.5% quarterly.
But the solid performance is not likely to last in the wake of this summer’s credit crisis, which prompted central banks to bail out paralyzed banking systems with emergency loans. Turbulence in the financial markets and a wider slowdown in the United States pushed the European Commission earlier this month to cut its growth forecast for 2008 to 2.2% from 2.5%. (See “EU Economy Cooling”)
“The European Central Bank is discovering the fact that the credit crunch did not have as big an impact on the third quarter as had been expected,” said Matthew Cairns, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “The real question for them now is the lagged effect of the credit crunch and whether or not that will impact real economic growth.”
What makes the current situation even trickier for the ECB is that some parts of the economy are showing signs of overheating. The European Commission said on Friday that it expected consumer price inflation for the eurozone in November to hit a six-year-high of 3.0%, up from 2.6% in October. Oil prices are dancing between $90 and $100 per barrel, and food and dairy prices are also on the rise, creating a macroeconomic Catch-22 for the ECB: how to fight inflation without curbing economic growth. (See “Stagflation In Europe?”)
“With the euro uncomfortably strong and eurozone economies currently showing clear signs of slowing, any additional tightening of monetary policy by the ECB would exacerbate already significant downside risks to the eurozone growth outlook,” said Howard Archer, chief economist with Global Insight.
The key short-term interest rate in Europe will likely stay at 4.0% for some time to come, at least until ECB Governor Jean-Claude Trichet can better gauge whether the current balancing act needs tweaking. But the strong euro will continue to hurt companies like Airbus parent European Aeronautic Defense and Space (other-otc: EADSF - news - people ), Dutch-American grocer Ahold (other-otc: AHONY - news - people ) and electronics maker Thales (other-otc: THLEY - news - people ) for some time to come, especially if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke follows through on his hints of an interest-rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s policy meeting on Dec. 11. (See “Recession Fears Sink The Dollar”)
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